Cherkashin Kirill Valerievich

Almost every important election in the world in recent years — especially in post-Soviet countries — has been accompanied by allegations of manipulations of the results. To determine whether such allegations are plausible, the identification of a pattern of electoral behaviour across specific territories appears necessary. Based on the analysis of the results of about 30 elections — from 1991 to 2014 — across the municipal districts of Donetsk, the article shows that electoral support of both winners and non-dominant political forces is rather stable and proportional. Over the period of nearly 25 years, the proportionality ratios between municipal districts during fair elections have not been affected by major changes, despite the evolution and transformation of the political agenda. The article argues that based on these results, the degree of deviation of particular districts can be traced and studied. Thus, using the reliable percentage values of electoral support even in only one of the districts, it is possible to predict the results of a particular election at both, the district level and municipal level as a whole.

Very approximate information is available about the electoral preferences of the residents of Donbass within the framework of the Russian political and legal field. The article considers the issue of establishing the exact results of the will of the voters of the L-DPR, who were citizens of the Russian Federation, in the elections to the State Duma in 2021. Conclusions about the electoral preferences of residents of the L-DPR are made on the basis of the difference in the results of voting on the proportional and majority components of the electoral system of the Russian Federation, within which residents of Donbass could not vote for majority candidates. The results of remote electronic voting (REV), “exit” voting at the polling stations of the Rostov region and post-election polling are analyzed.
It is established that at least 200 thousand L-DPR voters voted in these elections. The results of the REV and “exit” voting differed somewhat. The greatest support was enjoyed by: “United Russia” (the “exit” vote of the DPR — 81 %, the LPR — 83 %, the REV — 88 %) and the LDPR (up to 10 % on the “exit” vote). The electoral culture of Donbass had features of “periphery” in relation to the whole of the Russian Federation: many residents are poorly versed in the intricacies of Russian politics, vote for patriotic forces, identify support for the Russian Federation and its leadership.
According to the results of surveys, more than 60 % of residents of the L-DPR ethnically identify themselves as Russians. Depending on the wording of the questions, from 65 % to 80 % of respondents called joining the Russian Federation a priority vector of integration of the region. During the period of the existence of the L-DPR, the prevailing pro-Russian sentiments in this territory have only intensified.