Determinants of Electoral Geography in Large Cities: The Case of Pre-War Voting (1991–2012) in Donetsk

Abstract

This article addresses the issue of defi ning the determinants of electoral diff erentiation over the territory of a large city, with he city of Donetsk and the elections held in it from 1991 to 2012 used as the example. The characteristics of the electoral geography of a large city are described in detail, and the issues of their “causes” as well as markers of detected determinants are discussed. The following methods of mathematical statistics were used: the study of voting results and their comparison with socio-demographic indicators (especially with population census results) using the Pearson correlation coeffi cient; the determination coeffi cient; variance analysis ; and multiple regression analysis. The study maintains that there were two main determinants of the electoral geography of Donetsk: 1) a more signifi cant “Center — Periphery”; and 2) a less signifi cant “East — West.” In authentic elections these determinants have explained up to 99% of the variations in the main electoral indicators in the districts of the city. The demographic markers of these two determinants were the proportion of people with higher education and the ethnic composition of the population. Falsifi cation of election results causes a signifi cant decrease in the statistical reliability of the identifi ed links.

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