Proportionality of Electoral Support Across Territories and Prediction of Voting Results

Abstract

Almost every important election in the world in recent years — especially in post-Soviet countries — has been accompanied by allegations of manipulations of the results. To determine whether such allegations are plausible, the identification of a pattern of electoral behaviour across specific territories appears necessary. Based on the analysis of the results of about 30 elections — from 1991 to 2014 — across the municipal districts of Donetsk, the article shows that electoral support of both winners and non-dominant political forces is rather stable and proportional. Over the period of nearly 25 years, the proportionality ratios between municipal districts during fair elections have not been affected by major changes, despite the evolution and transformation of the political agenda. The article argues that based on these results, the degree of deviation of particular districts can be traced and studied. Thus, using the reliable percentage values of electoral support even in only one of the districts, it is possible to predict the results of a particular election at both, the district level and municipal level as a whole.

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