Shestopal Elena Borisovna

Concepts, images and pictures of the future in the minds of ordinary citizens serve as a sort of frame for comparison of reality with images of the possible and desirable, serving a normative function. The construction of future images is included in the mission and professional duty of the political elite. By its nature the elite is obliged to consider the risks that today’s decisions hold for the future. Scenarios with different time horizons play a role as an instrument of such strategy construction, most often in the social and political spheres. Prognoses are made on the bases of certain scenarios, as are certain strategies and specific policy decisions. The introduction of a humanitarian dimension into the scenarios (artistic, historical, psychological and moral elements) often facilitates a more precise prognosis than economic, sociological or strictly statistical parameters. The analysis of images of the future in people’s mentality not only indicates what qualities the citizenry finds lacking in the authorities of today — which makes it possible to correct certain decisions and actions — it also allows present-day planning to take into account societal expectations.

The article presents a comparison of the results of a study of Russia’s perception by its citizens of different periods, implemented at the Sociology and Psychology of Politics Programme, Department of Political Science, Lomonosov Moscow State University. The research methodology included focused semi-standardized interviews and projective tests. Qualitative methods with elements of quantitative ones were used for data interpretation: i.e. methods of coding and scaling answers to open questions and statistical analysis. The sample included respondents from 11 regions in 2017–2018 and 7 regions in spring-summer of 2022. The main attention was paid to the key structural elements of the country image: territory, people, power, political leaders and the geopolitical role of the country, as well as their representations of the past, present and future of the country. The study made it possible to reveal the transformation and peculiarities of the perception of Russia under the influence of the context change. Thus, three main conclusions were made. First, the recent changes in the domestic and foreign political context have changed not only current moods, but also the deeper layers of people’s minds. Second, individual components of the image of one’s country have changed unevenly under the influence of political context. Third, transformation affected not only the content of Russia’s image but also optics of the county’s perception.