Shestopal Elena Borisovna

Concepts, images and pictures of the future in the minds of ordinary citizens serve as a sort of frame for comparison of reality with images of the possible and desirable, serving a normative function. The construction of future images is included in the mission and professional duty of the political elite. By its nature the elite is obliged to consider the risks that today’s decisions hold for the future. Scenarios with different time horizons play a role as an instrument of such strategy construction, most often in the social and political spheres. Prognoses are made on the bases of certain scenarios, as are certain strategies and specific policy decisions. The introduction of a humanitarian dimension into the scenarios (artistic, historical, psychological and moral elements) often facilitates a more precise prognosis than economic, sociological or strictly statistical parameters. The analysis of images of the future in people’s mentality not only indicates what qualities the citizenry finds lacking in the authorities of today — which makes it possible to correct certain decisions and actions — it also allows present-day planning to take into account societal expectations.

The article presents a comparison of the results of a study of Russia’s perception by its citizens of different periods, implemented at the Sociology and Psychology of Politics Programme, Department of Political Science, Lomonosov Moscow State University. The research methodology included focused semi-standardized interviews and projective tests. Qualitative methods with elements of quantitative ones were used for data interpretation: i.e. methods of coding and scaling answers to open questions and statistical analysis. The sample included respondents from 11 regions in 2017–2018 and 7 regions in spring-summer of 2022. The main attention was paid to the key structural elements of the country image: territory, people, power, political leaders and the geopolitical role of the country, as well as their representations of the past, present and future of the country. The study made it possible to reveal the transformation and peculiarities of the perception of Russia under the influence of the context change. Thus, three main conclusions were made. First, the recent changes in the domestic and foreign political context have changed not only current moods, but also the deeper layers of people’s minds. Second, individual components of the image of one’s country have changed unevenly under the influence of political context. Third, transformation affected not only the content of Russia’s image but also optics of the county’s perception.

The article is based on the analysis of the discussion that have taken place at the Department of Politics of Lomonosov Moscow State University on May 25, 2023. Participants represented different academic fields: political science, history, sociology, psychology, communication studies. The discussion was going around a question whether one can see serious transformations not only in the current political moods but also in deeper layers of public mind, especially in values, identity, mentality that constitute the basis of national self-consciousness. In Political psychology these phenomena are interpreted as particular mental matrixes that can be described as stable clusters of citizens’ images and representations of themselves, their country and the world in general, their Present, Past and Future.
Today we are visually transforming as a nation. These swings concern first of all the deeper layers of public mind that take place at the background of tectonic changes in political, cultural, economic, technological and communication spheres of public life. These swings give rise to serious social risks and challenges as well as to new opportunities of political development of the country.
There were several main points of discussion. The first concerned the issue of methodological equipment of socio-humanitarian knowledge for interpretation of those transformations. The second issue of discussion was focused on the changes on Russian national identity and interpretation of the factors that determine transformation of values and identity.

The article discusses the results of a political and psychological study on how Russia’s development is perceived by the public. It examines the structural components, functions, and characteristics of the country’s future image. The authors draw conclusions about the most significant parameters for assessing these images of the future. Based on these conclusions, the most typical scenarios for Russia’s development as perceived by Russians are described. The most pronounced trends in political perception include a significant ambiguity in these images, driven by increasing uncertainty, as well as the instability and unpredictability of social processes. The study also highlights the need to develop critical thinking and imagination skills in society, the increasingly limited nature of planning horizons, and the refusal to scale goals. These risks are heightened by the instability of society’s psychological state and its sensitivity to the changing events. The study revealed a differentiation in the country’s images, based on the criterion of assessing reality based on emotional significance and activity. The data reflect the increasing relevance of basic materialistic values, as well as the complexity of society’s construction of long-term development scenarios. In this case, the communicative factor rather exacerbates the problems of perceiving the future. Generational, value, and temporal factors also appear to be significant ones in perceiving the future today.