Krutov A.V.

The article is devoted to the issues of the applicability potential of nonlinear analysis to the study of political processes and the substantiation of such applicability. It examines the results of Russian political and social scientists’ work published in the 1990s and related to forecasting and modeling socio-political changes. The study analyzes the phenomenon of an imbalance of forces and interests as a source of social problems, identifies problem types in relation to types of political activity, examines the specifics of their solutions, as well as the characteristics of the manifestation of political interests in these processes, and characterizes the conceptual ideas about the matter of politics, developed in the research of the 1990s. Models for solving ordinary problems (with increasing stability of the status quo) and extraordinary problems (with increasing stability of the social system) are compared. Concepts regarding the relationship between problem types, types of political activity, and types of conflicts are summarized, as well as reflection of this relationship in modeling socio-political changes; the features of the manifestation of political interests in a problematic situation are highlighted; model representations of the matter of politics reflecting the interrelation of interests, needs, and claims are described.