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Fundamentals of Global Competition: Logistics, Technology and Polar Alliances in Past, Present and Future. Part 1Moscow University Bulletin. Series 12. Political Science. 2023. 4. p.7-43read more395
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The formation and functioning of various models of the world order has a deep and complex history that does not fit into the traditional chronologically consistent scheme, and these models themselves did not inherit each other, but were combined in varying degrees of harmony. The dynamics of international relations, at least in the medium term, will be determined by the trends observed over the past decades — such as inequality in the levels of economic development, the redistribution of shares of world wealth, the rivalry for global dominance between the United States, gradually losing its position as sole leader, China, Russia and other global players, and finally, the search for new tools balancing the global status quo.
Expansion geopolitics will also remain the dominant trend in the short- to medium-term perspective. One of its striking manifestations is the Belt — Road Initiative, implemented by the PRC. Expansion geopolitics seems to get start most intensively in West Africa. The region, on the one hand, needs large infrastructure investments, on the other hand, — has a number of advantages that could create a production and logistics hub in it, the starting point of a project similar to the Chinese Belt — Road initiative.Keywords: world order; short- and medium-term perspective; geopolitics; geoeconomics; global competition; prognostic scenario
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Fundamentals of Global Competition: Logistics, Technology and Polar Alliances in Past, Present and Future. Part 2Moscow University Bulletin. Series 12. Political Science. 2024. 3. p.46-66read more45
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Th e formation of the global world order in the short- and medium- term perspective is developing by several ways: through the formation of systemic alliances formed on a multilateral contractual basis (for example, the EU, NATO, BRICS), membership in which may imply the concession of a part of state sovereignty, and through the formation of informal “spontaneous” (situational) alliances. Current trends in international relations show that the systemic way is less effective. In unions of this kind, contradictions between individual members impede the functioning of the entire structure, depriving it of the possibility of coordinated joint activities. Spontaneous alliances are more resistant to crisis phenomena for their members, since the relations of individual participants do not immobilize the entire system. In this regard, the informal interaction of the United States and India, on the one hand, Russia, China and Iran, on the other, looks like the basis of the future world order, despite the fact that India is a member of the BRICS union. The role of global supranational regulators, including the UN, tends to weaken.
Until some of the players of global importance have military technologies that qualitatively exceed the current level of arms development, that is, the reducing advantages of nuclear weapons to zero, the importance of logistical factors will determine the formation of the contours of the new world order. Those actors of the competing parties who will be able to be the first to use the most of West Africa’s geo-economic advantages, will form contours of the global world order.Keywords: world order; short- and medium-term perspective; geopolitics; geoeconomics; global competition; prognostic scenario
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