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Fundamentals of Global Competition: Logistics, Technology and Polar Alliances in Past, Present and Future. Part 1Moscow University Bulletin. Series 12. Political Science. 2023. 4. p.7-43read more507
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The formation and functioning of various models of the world order has a deep and complex history that does not fit into the traditional chronologically consistent scheme, and these models themselves did not inherit each other, but were combined in varying degrees of harmony. The dynamics of international relations, at least in the medium term, will be determined by the trends observed over the past decades — such as inequality in the levels of economic development, the redistribution of shares of world wealth, the rivalry for global dominance between the United States, gradually losing its position as sole leader, China, Russia and other global players, and finally, the search for new tools balancing the global status quo.
Expansion geopolitics will also remain the dominant trend in the short- to medium-term perspective. One of its striking manifestations is the Belt — Road Initiative, implemented by the PRC. Expansion geopolitics seems to get start most intensively in West Africa. The region, on the one hand, needs large infrastructure investments, on the other hand, — has a number of advantages that could create a production and logistics hub in it, the starting point of a project similar to the Chinese Belt — Road initiative.Keywords: world order; short- and medium-term perspective; geopolitics; geoeconomics; global competition; prognostic scenario
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Fundamentals of Global Competition: Logistics, Technology and Polar Alliances in Past, Present and Future. Part 2Moscow University Bulletin. Series 12. Political Science. 2024. 3. p.46-66read more171
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The formation of a global world order in the short and medium term proceeds in several ways: through the creation of systemic alliances organized on a multilateral contractual basis (for example, the European Union, NATO), membership in which may imply the cession of a share of state sovereignty, and through the creation of informal "spontaneous" (situational) alliances. Current trends in international relations show that the systemic path is less effective. In unions of this kind, contradictions between individual members make it difficult for the entire structure to function, making it impossible for it to carry out coordinated joint activities. Spontaneous unions are more stable in times of crisis, as the dynamics of individual members' relationships do not immobilize the entire union. In this regard, informal cooperation between the United States and India, on the one hand, and Russia, China, and Iran, on the other, looks like the foundation of the future. The role of global supranational regulators, including the UN, tends to weaken.
Until any of the global players have military technologies at their disposal that qualitatively surpass the current level of weapons development, i.e., reducing the advantages of nuclear weapons to zero, the importance of logistical factors will be decisive for shaping the contours of a new world order. Depending on which of the competing models will be able to make the most of the geo-economic advantages of West Africa, the contours of the global world order will take one shape or another.Keywords: world order; short- and medium-term perspective; geopolitics; geoeconomics; global competition; prognostic scenario
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