Political Evaluation of Election Results Using Mathematical Methods: The Cases of the Russian Federation, Mexico, the United Kingdom and Afghanistan

Abstract

Mathematical methods are today the most popular way of evaluating the voting results, providing insight on their reliability. In Russia and in the rest of the world, there is a need to develop scientific tools for the application of mathematical research methods to assess the election results, especially if such results are considered fraudulent by the public. The author examines four case studies: Mexico, Great Britain, Afghanistan, Russia, discussing advantages and disadvantages of adopting mathematical research methods in evaluating the election results. The article finds that the reason for the refusal of the state authorities to conduct such an assessment of election results, may be first of all the nature of the actors requesting the ex-post analysis, namely a non-professional political scientists and the opposition, aiming at identifying electoral fraud. Indeed, a mathematical evaluation of the election results can show approximately the same balance of forces and dynamics of the electoral process that were already well known even before. Indeed, in countries where government agencies refuse to conduct such an assessment, independent experts rely on the resources of civil society and international organizations. For all these reasons, the article concludes suggesting that state authorities should implement the process of evaluation of election results using mathematical methods, as well as provide clear guidance for conducting such a process.

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