The Factor of Fear: Russia in Poland’s National Security Strategies

The “Russian threat” factor is constitutive for the logic and guiding principles of Poland’s security policy implementation, as evidenced by a systematic analysis of the corpus of strategic‑planning documents in the domain of foreign and security policy. The article’s primary objective is to trace the evolution of strategic assessments of Russia in the key documents of Polish security policy adopted in 2014 and 2020. The author employs elements of institutional and comparative analysis in combination with qualitative political analysis and expert assessment, while the analytical framework conceptualises international‑political dynamics as a shifting outcome of political design, shaped by the national strategies of states and institutional actors. The study boasts not only significant academic value, contributing to the empirical investigation of security‑theory case studies, but also substantial applied relevance for the Russian foreign‑policy forecasting and planning system.

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