Political Mobilization of Online Protest Communities in 2021 and 2024

The article contains the results of the study of political mobilization of protest communities in the social network VK. The set of such communities (network cluster) was mapped in winter — spring 2021. The state of the same cluster was studied in late 2023 — early 2024. The comparison of the two sub-periods allowed us to propose an answer to the key research question: how the change in the political situation affected the activity of protest groups. To calculate the level of mobilization, a new indicator was imported from the theory of self-organized criticality, which is a natural science concept. This indicator allows us to identify (through the analysis of dynamic series of network activity) communities that are characterized by high user involvement and are able to influence the behavior of their members. The author showed that the cluster was partially mobilized in 2021, but shrunk by more than two-thirds by 2024. Few communities show high levels of mobilization during the second sub-period. The cluster, however, is likely to recover as new nodes and links emerge.

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