Influence Strategies of External Actors in Russia’s Near Abroad amid Special Military Operation

The article is devoted to the analysis of the latest trends in the indirect political influence of external actors — China, Turkey, UK, the USA and the European Union — in the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) member-states through humanitarian and economic projects. The special features of the approaches of the leading actors are brought to light, including emphasis on military-ideological expansion (Western countries), trade and economic advancement (China) and cultural-ideological penetration (Turkey). It is concluded that there was no fundamental revision of indirect influence strategies after the start of Russia’s Special Military Operation, but significant adjustments in methods took place. Non-Western countries are still trying to work in the region mainly in the framework of globalization, i.e. multivector relatively peaceful coexistence and competition.

References

Blackwill, R., and Jennifer, M. War by Other Means: Geoeconomics and Statecraft. New York: Harvard University Press, 2017.
Bogaturov, A. D. Mezhdunarodnye otnosheniia i vneshniaia politika Rossii. Moscow: Aspekt press, 2020.
Brown, R. “Alternatives to Soft Power: Influence in French and German External Cultural Action,” The Routledge Handbook of Soft Power, eds. N. Chitty, L. Ji, G. Rawnsley, and C. Hayden. London: Routledge, 2020, pp. 37–47.
Bukharin, M. D., Kovalenko, V. I., and Tsygankov, P. A. “Osnovy global’noi konkurentsii: logistika, tekhnologii i poliarnye soiuzy v proshlom, nastoiashchem i budushchem, P. 1,” Vestnik Moskovskogo universiteta. Seriia 12. Politicheskie nauki, No. 4, 2023, pp. 7–43.
Bukharin, M. D., Kovalenko, V. I., and Tsygankov, P. A. “Osnovy global’noi konkurentsii: logistika, tekhnologii i poliarnye soiuzy v proshlom, nastoiashchem i budushchem, P. 2,” Vestnik Moskovskogo universiteta. Seriia 12. Politicheskie nauki, No. 3, 2024, pp. 46–66.
Haas, P. “Epistemic Communities,” The Oxford Handbook of International Environmental Law, eds. L. Rajamani, and J. Peel. New York: Oxford Handbooks, 2021, pp. 698–715.
Heathershaw, J., Cooley, A., Mayne, T. et al. The UK’s Kleptocracy Problem. How Servicing Post-Soviet Elites Weakens the Rule of Law. London: The Royal Institute of International Affairs, 2021, URL: https://www.chathamhouse.org/sites/default/files/2023- 01/2021-12-08-uk-kleptocracy-problem-heathershaw-mayne-et-al.pdf
Istomin, I. A. Logika povedeniia gosudarstv v mezhdunarodnoi politike. Moscow: Aspekt press, 2018.
Istomin, I. A., and Baikov, A. A. “Al’iansy na sluzhbe gegemonii: dekonstruktsiia instrumentariia voenno-politicheskogo dominirovaniia,” Polis. Politicheskie issledovaniia, Vol. 29, No. 6, 2020, pp. 8–25.
Khrustalev, M. A. Analiz mezhdunarodnykh situatsii i politicheskaia ekspertiza. Moscow: Aspekt press, 2020.
Lei, W. “Global Development Initiative: An International Public Goods to Promote Common Development,” China Economist, Vol. 17, No. 4, 2022, pp. 13–25.
Liddell Hart, B. H. Strategy: The Indirect Approach. New York: Pentagon Press, 2012.
Malakhov, A., Serik, E., and Zaboev, A. Monitoring vzaimnykh investitsii EABR. Almaty: Evraziiskii bank razvitiia, 2023, URL: https://eabr.org/upload/iblock/82b/ EDB_2023_Report-5_Monitoring-of-Mutual-Investments_rus.pdf
Nye, J. “Soft Power,” Foreign Policy, No. 80, 1990, pp. 153–171.
Nye, J. Soft Power and Great-Power Competition: Shifting Sands in the Balance of Power Between the United States and China. Cambridge: Springer, 2023.
O’Rourke, R. Great Power Competition: Implications for Defense: Issues for Congress. Washington: Congressional Research Service, 2024, URL: https://crsreports. congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R43838/102
Rixen, T., Viola, L. A., and Zürn, M. (eds.) Historical Institutionalism and International Relations: Explaining Institutional Development in World Politics. London: Oxford University Press, 2016.
Rühlig, T. “Chinese Influence through Technical Standardization Power,” Journal of Contemporary China, Vol. 32, No. 139, 2023, pp. 54–72.
Solov’ev, E. G. “Geopoliticheskie sdvigi v sovremennom mire v zerkale evoliutsii kontseptsii suvereniteta,” Vestnik Moskovskogo universiteta. Seriia 12. Politicheskie nauki, No. 3, 2014, pp. 57–73.
Stone, D. Knowledge Actors and Transnational Governance: The Private-Public Policy Nexus in the Global Agora. London: Palgrave Macmillan, 2013.
Sutyrin, V. “Special Military Operation in Ukraine: Consequences for the EAEU and Eurasian Integration,” Russia in Global Affairs, No. 2, 2022, pp. 158–163.
Sutyrin, V. V. “Finansy dlia liberal’nogo poriadka: sravnitel’nyi analiz mezhdunarodnoi deiatel’nosti politicheskikh fondov FRG i filantropicheskikh fondov SShA,” Mezhdunarodnye protsessy, Vol. 20, No. 3, 2022, pp. 55–79.
Sutyrin, V. V. “Transformatsiia politiki SShA, ES i KNR v oblasti sodeistviia razvitiiu na fone mezhderzhavnogo sopernichestva,” Mezhdunarodnye protsessy, No. 4, 2023, pp. 53–82.