Prerequisites for Color Revolutions: Comparative Analysis

Abstract

This article presents a comparative analysis, using Boolean algebra algorithms, of the prerequisites for color revolutions. The author off ers for verifi cation a hypothesis on the infl uence of four factors — ideological division of the political elite; unity of the opposition; participation in the political process of forces external to the political system; and support of the population — on the outcome of the color revolutions. Based on the confi gurations of factors obtained, a conclusion is drawn for each country-case of the necessary and suffi cient reasons for the color revolutions. Some of the analyzed scenarios of color revolutions (mainly in former Soviet countries) were realized under the infl uence of all four factors, while other cases — mainly events in the countries of North Africa and the Middle East — were caused by combinations of two or three factors. A necessary but not suffi cient reason for the emergence of color revolutions is “support of the population.” In combination with other causes, it forms two compositions of factors that are suffi cient for the emergence of a color revolution. The first is a combination of the factors “support of the population” and “ideological division of the political elite”; this is suffi cient even in the absence of “support from outside” and “unity of the opposition.” Secondly, a combination of the factors “support of the population,” “support from the outside” and “unity of the opposition” is suffi cient even in the absence of the “ideological division of political elites.”

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